Posted by AKAkopa (Ranked 4 on Cribbage (World Gaming Center) Ladder) on May 29, 2007 at 18:19:58:
In Reply to: Cribbage help posted by tev_dodd on May 29, 2007 at 17:29:58:
HMMMM That is a good one! Where's Gremlin when ya need him?
At 87-87 I look at it this way, my opponent will have 3 hands to try and reach 121 to my 1. If he doesn't go out on the next hand with his first count then I gain the advantage of first count on the 4th hand.
Keeping this in mind, I would try my best to not help my opponent. This may sound odd, but I would break up the SURE 12 point hand and toss him a 4 and a 6. Thus holding only 6 points in my hand.
Here is my reasoning;
4-6 to his crib, there is only 10 cards that will improve that immediately. (3--4's, 3--5's, and 4--9's)
Holding the 5666 in my hand there 27 cards that will help my hand immediately. (4--3s, 3--4s,4--7s and the 16 face cards (counting a 10 as a face!)
I throw a 4/5 to his crib he has 24 cards that help him immediately. If I throw the 6/6, I not only give him 2 points but he has 8 (4--3s and 4--9s) cards that immediately help, plus the possibility of double runs. I don't like any of that!
Not even gonna go into the possible pegging scenarios but in my mind holding 5666 is probably my safest bet also to prevent me from being pegged to death.
Course, then again what the hell do I know anyway--I still say it 85-90% luck in this game! It's very probable that I would screw this up in a game! LOL
Hope others weigh into this discussion with their ideas too.