Theory vs Reality

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Posted by TheWall812 (Ranked 365 on Scrabble (Zone) Ladder) on September 29, 2001 at 00:48:48:

In Reply to: Re: #35 posted by vuggy on September 27, 2001 at 16:26:37:

: After 10000 1 ply sims Maven likes:

: AN Best
: NA -.66
: NAG -2.3
: GAN -3.7
: GIN -4.9
: AGIN -6.3
: GAIN -7.5

: Obviously the N's need to be split. Keeping the I over the A sims better because of the synergy of the early game ING and the IES. In both cases, doubling the I is not all that horrible. Additionally, the differences in second turn bingos is not so much with the 7's as it is with the 8's of which you'll likely have some opportunities playing just 2 letters.

: Another tenet of opening game play strategy is that there is some minus value in equity for each different letter you play for your opponent to play through. I think Maven subtracts about 4 points for each letter. In other words, hanging out GAIN gives your opponent twice as many different tiles to play an 8 through. There are far more 8's than 7's.

:
: Just my 2 cents.

: Mark

******************************
The trouble is... Maven sims against itself. It plays at a 1900+ level. My opponent in this specific game does not.
Yes, GAIN offers more to play through than does AN. And yes, Maven or an expert human player would likely punish me for it. But that's irrelevant to this situation.
I'm playing a 1100-level player here. If AN is supposedly the best play because it offers fewer options for 8-letter bingos... well, she did have as easy a bingo as DONATING staring her in the face; she misses it, and tries the phony TOADING* instead.
This leaves the 4 letters of GAIN available for ME to bingo thru if I can... rather than just 2. Now, I'm no Maven, but if having more letters to bingo thru favours anybody here, does it not favour the stronger bingoer? Maybe I'm crazy, but I have to think the stronger bingoer in that game is me!!
Obviously if playing an expert, I'd rethink GAIN.
Part of good scrabble is the ability to accurately assess how much of a threat the opponent presents, and play to that threat.
No sense cowering behind a 4 point opening AN in anticipation of thundering 8's like TALAPOIN when the opponent is missing things like DONATING... that's wasteful and unnecessary defensive thinking.

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Re: Theory vs Reality vuggy 09:14:27 9/29/01 (0)

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: : : After 10000 1 ply sims Maven likes: : : AN Best : : NA -.66 : : NAG -2.3 : : GAN -3.7 : : GIN -4.9 : : AGIN -6.3 : : GAIN -7.5 : : Obviously the N's need to be split. Keeping the I over the A sims better because of the synergy of the early game ING and the IES. In both cases, doubling the I is not all that horrible. Additionally, the differences in second turn bingos is not so much with the 7's as it is with the 8's of which you'll likely have some opportunities playing just 2 letters. : : Another tenet of opening game play strategy is that there is some minus value in equity for each different letter you play for your opponent to play through. I think Maven subtracts about 4 points for each letter. In other words, hanging out GAIN gives your opponent twice as many different tiles to play an 8 through. There are far more 8's than 7's. : : : : Just my 2 cents. : : Mark : ****************************** : The trouble is... Maven sims against itself. It plays at a 1900+ level. My opponent in this specific game does not. : Yes, GAIN offers more to play through than does AN. And yes, Maven or an expert human player would likely punish me for it. But that's irrelevant to this situation. : I'm playing a 1100-level player here. If AN is supposedly the best play because it offers fewer options for 8-letter bingos... well, she did have as easy a bingo as DONATING staring her in the face; she misses it, and tries the phony TOADING* instead. : This leaves the 4 letters of GAIN available for ME to bingo thru if I can... rather than just 2. Now, I'm no Maven, but if having more letters to bingo thru favours anybody here, does it not favour the stronger bingoer? Maybe I'm crazy, but I have to think the stronger bingoer in that game is me!! : Obviously if playing an expert, I'd rethink GAIN. : Part of good scrabble is the ability to accurately assess how much of a threat the opponent presents, and play to that threat. : No sense cowering behind a 4 point opening AN in anticipation of thundering 8's like TALAPOIN when the opponent is missing things like DONATING... that's wasteful and unnecessary defensive thinking.

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